Prerequisites
Before you start, you’ll need:
- Phantom wallet with the latest update installed (mobile or browser extension)
- SOL or USDC in your wallet for trading (minimum ~$1, but $10-50 recommended to start)
- US-based location (prediction markets on Phantom are currently geo-restricted)
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets let you trade contracts based on whether specific real-world events will happen. Each market asks a yes-or-no question — like “Will the Fed cut rates in March?” or “Will Bitcoin hit $100K by June?”
Contract prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, and the price reflects the market’s assessed probability. If “Yes” is trading at $0.72, the market is assigning a 72% chance that the event happens. If you think the real probability is higher, you buy “Yes.” If you think it’s lower, you buy “No.”
When the event resolves:
– Winning contracts pay out $1.00 per contract
– Losing contracts pay out $0.00
Your profit is the difference between what you paid and $1.00. Buy “Yes” at $0.30 and win? You pocket $0.70 per contract.
Step 1: Open Prediction Markets in Phantom
Open Phantom wallet on mobile or desktop. Navigate to the Explore tab (compass icon on mobile) and look for the Prediction Markets section. You’ll see live markets organized by category.
On desktop, prediction markets appear in the main dashboard. Look for the dedicated prediction markets tab or search for “predictions” in the Explore section.
Pro tip: Phantom auto-converts your SOL or any Solana token into the required position — you don’t need to manually swap first.
Step 2: Browse Markets and Pick an Event
Browse the available market categories:
- Politics/Elections — presidential races, Congressional outcomes, ballot measures
- Macro/Economics — Fed rate decisions, inflation data, unemployment numbers, GDP
- Sports — NFL, NBA, MLB, championship outcomes (now 75% of Kalshi volume)
- Crypto — BTC/ETH price targets, ecosystem events
- Weather — temperature records, hurricane activity
- Entertainment — awards shows, TV ratings
Each market shows the current probability (contract price), total volume, and resolution date. Tap on any market to see detailed information, price history, and the full resolution criteria.
Pro tip: Focus on markets where you have genuine knowledge or insight. Sports and macro events tend to have the deepest liquidity.
Step 3: Place Your Trade
Once you’ve selected a market:
- Choose your position — “Yes” or “No”
- Enter the number of contracts you want to buy
- Review the cost breakdown — you’ll see total cost, potential payout, and the implied probability
- Confirm the trade in Phantom
You can pay with SOL, USDC, Phantom’s CASH stablecoin, or any other Solana token in your wallet. Phantom handles the conversion automatically.
Behind the scenes, DFlow’s Concurrent Liquidity Programs (CLPs) handle the execution: your intent goes onchain, liquidity providers fill your order at or better than your limit price, and the protocol mints SPL tokens representing your prediction position.
Step 4: Monitor and Manage Positions
After placing a trade, your positions appear in Phantom as SPL tokens in your wallet. You can:
- Hold until the event resolves for full payout ($1.00 per winning contract)
- Sell early if the market moves in your favor and you want to lock in profit
- Buy more if you see value as probabilities shift
Since positions are real Solana tokens, they’re fully composable. Advanced users can trade them on Jupiter, use them as collateral on lending platforms like Kamino or Marginfi, or even LP them.
Pro tip: Check the chat feature — Phantom added a social component to each market where traders discuss their predictions.
Step 5: Claim Your Winnings
When a market resolves:
- Check your Phantom wallet for resolved positions
- Winning positions automatically become redeemable for $1.00 per contract
- Redeem your winnings — you can receive in USDC or other stablecoins
Settlement flows through DFlow’s CLP infrastructure. Winning tokens are redeemed for their designated payout, and funds land directly in your Phantom wallet.
Trade Prediction Markets on Phantom
How the Tech Stack Works
Understanding the layers helps you see why this matters:
| Layer | Role | What It Does |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Exchange | CFTC-regulated order book, market creation, resolution |
| DFlow | Tokenization | Bridges Kalshi liquidity onchain via CLPs, mints SPL tokens |
| Jupiter | Routing | Integrates tokenized markets into Solana’s DEX ecosystem |
| Phantom/Solflare | Distribution | Wallet-native UI for browsing and trading markets |
DFlow’s Concurrent Liquidity Programs are the key innovation. They accept onchain trade intents asynchronously, match them against Kalshi’s offchain liquidity, and mint real SPL tokens representing positions. This means Solana gets 100% coverage of Kalshi’s 10,300+ active markets.
Prediction Markets on Solana vs. Polymarket
| Feature | Kalshi (Solana) | Polymarket (Polygon) |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated | Unregulated |
| Chain | Solana | Polygon |
| Wallet | Phantom, Solflare | MetaMask, Rainbow |
| US Access | All 50 states | Restricted |
| Volume | $50B annualized | $24B annualized |
| Active Markets | 10,300+ | 3,400+ |
| Token Type | Real SPL tokens | UMA conditional tokens |
| Composability | Full Solana DeFi | Limited Polygon DeFi |
| KYC | Required on Kalshi, not for onchain tokens | Not required |
The key difference: Kalshi is the regulated, institutional-grade option with deeper liquidity. Polymarket is the crypto-native, permissionless alternative. With DFlow’s tokenization, Kalshi gets the best of both worlds — regulated liquidity with onchain composability.
Risks to Know
- Regulatory uncertainty — Several states (Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey) have challenged Kalshi’s sports contracts under state gambling laws. The CFTC vs. state jurisdiction question is unresolved.
- Geo-restrictions — Prediction markets on Phantom are currently limited to eligible US users. International access is expanding but not yet universal.
- You can lose your entire stake — If your prediction is wrong, your contracts pay $0. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.
- Liquidity varies — Popular markets (elections, Super Bowl) have deep liquidity. Niche markets may have wider spreads.
FAQ
Are Solana prediction markets legal?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and operates legally in all 50 states. DFlow’s tokenization brings Kalshi’s regulated markets onchain, but the underlying regulatory framework stays intact — this is market access, not regulatory bypass.
Do I need KYC to trade prediction markets on Phantom?
The onchain tokenized positions trade permissionlessly as SPL tokens, but Kalshi’s underlying exchange requires KYC. If you’re trading through Phantom’s native integration, the KYC requirements depend on how the integration routes your order.
What tokens can I use to trade?
You can trade with SOL, USDC, Phantom’s CASH stablecoin, or any other Solana token. Phantom handles the conversion automatically.
Can I sell my position before the event resolves?
Yes. Your positions are real SPL tokens that you can sell at any time to lock in profit or cut losses. The market price will fluctuate as the probability changes.
Is Solflare also supported?
Yes. Solflare has integrated prediction markets powered by Kalshi and DFlow, offering the same functionality as Phantom for trading tokenized prediction markets.
What happens if there’s a dispute about a market resolution?
Kalshi handles all market resolutions through its CFTC-regulated framework. Resolution criteria are defined upfront for every market, and Kalshi serves as the authoritative source for outcomes.
